2026 Projections

Through Week 9 · every team’s current roster, optimal lineup off Sleeper’s weekly player projections, 6,000-sim Monte Carlo of the rest of the season · updated Nov 10

Through Week 8: jwilson2309 projects out front. The rest of you are somewhere between "in the hunt" and "already thinking about the draft."

#TeamPts/WkProj. RecordPlayoffsTitleLast
1Jjwilson2309jwilson2309129.711.8–2.2100%30%0.0%
2KKwilcut1Kwilcut1124.210.5–3.5100%15%0.0%
3TNacua MatataTrevor122.910.5–3.5100%7.2%0.0%
4JShow Me The Lovejgunner34118.98.8–5.298%9.8%0.0%
5JKittles ‘N Bits 2.0jheinz2557122.28.5–5.598%32%0.0%
6LLockoLocko116.07.3–6.778%5.7%0.0%
7Kkeithwolfkeithwolf105.16.1–7.913%0.6%0.0%
8RJeu Man Grouprafeldm98.55.6–8.44.9%0.1%0.0%
9TGame of JonesTShaw21109.85.5–8.58.6%0.3%0.0%
10JSuck Maye Black Dickerjbrand2393.74.4–9.60.2%0.0%1.0%
11Jjkues25jkues2587.92.6–11.40.0%0.0%44%
12LDirty Burdenlukepakosta87.42.5–11.50.0%0.0%55%

The Tape

J
1. jwilson2309jwilson2309 · proj 11.8 wins · 129.7 pts/wk · 29.8% title

The model loves you. Your trophy case does not.

QB Jordan Love 17.1RB Christian McCaffrey 22.5RB Javonte Williams 17.9WR Ja'Marr Chase 19.6WR Drake London 16.4TE Isaiah Likely 12.6K Chase McLaughlin 0.0DEF JAX DEF 8.8WR A.J. Brown 14.0
K
2. Kwilcut1Kwilcut1 · proj 10.5 wins · 124.2 pts/wk · 14.6% title

Up from 8th to a projected 3rd. Enjoy it before the regression notices.

QB Joe Burrow 22.1RB Kenneth Walker III 21.0RB James Cook III 15.0WR Tee Higgins 16.8WR Zay Flowers 16.2TE Harold Fannin Jr. 11.1K Brandon Aubrey 9.9DEF KC DEF 6.5WR Jalen Coker 15.5
T
3. TrevorNacua Matata · proj 10.5 wins · 122.9 pts/wk · 7.2% title

The favorite with the trophies to match, which is exactly why everyone's rooting against you.

QB Patrick Mahomes 18.8RB Jahmyr Gibbs 24.6RB Kyren Williams 17.9WR CeeDee Lamb 20.3WR Tre Tucker 10.0TE Darren Waller 8.4K Spencer Shrader 9.9DEF LAR DEF 8.2RB David Montgomery 11.1
J
4. jgunner34Show Me The Love · proj 8.8 wins · 118.9 pts/wk · 9.8% title

4th, 8 wins, no notes. Aggressively adequate.

QB Josh Allen 26.3RB Bhayshul Tuten 16.3RB Travis Etienne Jr. 11.4WR Chris Olave 16.2WR Carnell Tate 13.8TE Sam LaPorta 12.8K Will Reichard 8.6DEF BAL DEF 8.5WR Matthew Golden 13.7
J
5. jheinz2557Kittles ‘N Bits 2.0 · proj 8.5 wins · 122.2 pts/wk · 32.0% title

5th, 8 wins, no notes. Aggressively adequate.

QB Matthew Stafford 16.9RB Bijan Robinson 19.9RB Chase Brown 13.0WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 24.5WR Justin Jefferson 17.0TE George Kittle 16.2K Harrison Butker 7.7DEF BUF DEF 6.8WR Christian Watson 16.5
L
6. LockoLocko · proj 7.3 wins · 116.0 pts/wk · 5.7% title

Up from 11th to a projected 6th. Enjoy it before the regression notices.

QB Bryce Young 19.7RB Chuba Hubbard 17.9RB Ashton Jeanty 12.5WR Malik Nabers 17.3WR Parker Washington 15.7TE Tyler Warren 12.3K Matt Gay 8.1DEF MIN DEF 6.3WR Jakobi Meyers 10.7
K
7. keithwolfkeithwolf · proj 6.1 wins · 105.1 pts/wk · 0.6% title

6 projected wins. Draft better.

QB Jared Goff 18.8RB Jaylen Warren 16.7RB Ollie Gordon II 12.7WR George Pickens 13.8WR Jordyn Tyson 10.4TE Travis Kelce 12.8K Cam Little 9.1DEF SEA DEF 7.7RB Tony Pollard 12.1
R
8. rafeldmJeu Man Group · proj 5.6 wins · 98.5 pts/wk · 0.1% title

Finished 3rd last year, projected 9th now. The roster aged in dog years.

QB Bo Nix 0.0RB Alvin Kamara 6.9RB Emmett Johnson 6.8WR Amon-Ra St. Brown 19.5WR Tetairoa McMillan 15.8TE Trey McBride 15.6K Nick Folk 7.8DEF GB DEF 8.3WR Ladd McConkey 12.1
T
9. TShaw21Game of Jones · proj 5.5 wins · 109.8 pts/wk · 0.3% title

Down from 1st to a projected 8th — the window didn't close, it got bricked over.

QB Brock Purdy 22.9RB Derrick Henry 15.5RB Quinshon Judkins 10.8WR Garrett Wilson 14.6WR Stefon Diggs 11.4TE Brock Bowers 17.1K Jason Myers 8.8DEF NE DEF 5.5WR Omar Cooper Jr. 10.1
J
10. jbrand23Suck Maye Black Dicker · proj 4.4 wins · 93.7 pts/wk · 0.0% title

10th and on the outside looking in. Bench some of that hope.

QB Drake Maye 23.0RB Cam Skattebo 12.1RB Rachaad White 10.7WR Nico Collins 16.6WR Jameson Williams 12.5TE Dalton Kincaid 11.0K Jake Bates 8.8RB Braelon Allen 10.6
J
11. jkues25jkues25 · proj 2.6 wins · 87.9 pts/wk · 0.0% title

The roster projects for 92 a week. That's not a lineup, it's a cry for help.

QB Carson Wentz 12.5RB Jonathan Taylor 17.1RB Rico Dowdle 9.6WR Rashee Rice 15.1WR Deebo Samuel Sr. 10.7TE Hunter Henry 9.9K Ka'imi Fairbairn 8.3DEF PIT DEF 5.7WR Keenan Allen 10.4
L
12. lukepakostaDirty Burden · proj 2.5 wins · 87.4 pts/wk · 0.0% title

Projected 12th with a 56% shot at dead last. Measure your mantel for the toilet.

QB Trevor Lawrence 21.6RB Zach Charbonnet 10.3RB Blake Corum 9.9WR DJ Moore 14.6WR DK Metcalf 11.1TE Pat Freiermuth 10.9K Cairo Santos 0.0RB Devin Singletary 9.9

Projected points come from Sleeper’s weekly player projections with the optimal lineup set each week (bench points don’t count). Roasts by the house AI off each team’s real numbers.